Salem 2016 End of Year Real Estate Report
It was a crazy year in real estate if you were a home buyer trying to buy a home. Flippers and investors were heavily involved in the market causing competition for home occupied home owners.
- Home sales were up 6.3% year over year.
- Days on the market had no change.
- The median home price was up 14% to $220,000.
- Current inventory is 3.73 months
- The market favors sellers
Salem 3rd Quarter Home Market Report
- Home sales up 9.6% quarter over quarter
- Days on the market down 27% to 70 days from list to close
- Median home price up 15.8% to $235,000
- Average price per square foot up 9.9% to $143.40
- Current inventory 2.1 months
- Market strongly favors sellers
Salem 2nd Quarter Home Market Report
- Home sales up 3.9% quarter over quarter
- Days on the market up 1.6% to 64 days from list to close
- Median home price up 12.6% to $223,000
- Average price per square foot up 9.0% to $134.34
- Current inventory 2.2 months
- Market strongly favors sellers
Salem Oregon home prices
The home truth for Salem Oregon: End of year 2015
- Home sales up 36.3% year over year
- Days on the market down 9.8% to 74 days from list to close
- Median home price up 8.8% to $196,000
- Current inventory 3.27 months
- Market favors sellers
Salem home prices climbed last year to the frustration of home buyers. Multiple offers were commonplace especially in the under $250,000 price range where most buyers tend to be.
This year has continued with the same trend with homes still selling well and there is very low inventory putting sellers in a good negotiating position.
The home truth for Salem: Second Quarter, year over year
- Median home price up 8% to $198,000. This is a slow down from the first quarters 10.4% increase.
- Home sales are up 45.6% this is a 15% increase from the first quarter and consistent with the seasonal market increase that happens in the spring/summer season.
- Days on the market is down 20% to 63 days.
- Inventory is currently at 4.35 months
- Market favors: Sellers.
As is typically of this time of year, the inventory that was put on the market in the first quarter was eaten up with spring and summer home buyers anxious to get settled into their new homes during summer months.
The home truth for Salem: First Quarter 2015, year over year
- Median home price up 10.4% to $187,750.
- Home sales are up 30.5%
- Days on the market is down 3% to 92 days on the market.
- Inventory is current at 5.9 months
- Market favors: Neither buyers nor sellers. Neutral market
Some of you reading that we are in an overall neutral market in Salem will be shaking your heads as you got aced out of a house for the second time during multiple offers. These statistics are for all of Salem and obviously some areas are more competitive than other areas.
In breaking down the mini-markets in Salem
Central Salem is at 5.9 months inventory and a neutral market.
NE Salem (Jan Ree, Hayesville, etc) is at 5.68 months inventory and in a neutral market.
SE Salem (Four corners, Houck area) is at 5.5 months of inventory and in a neutral market.
South Salem has 6.42 months of inventory and is in a neutral market.
West Salem is at 5.6 months of inventory and a neutral market.
These statistics are counter intuitive to what is felt in the marketplace, but what home buyers are feeling are the niche markets. South Salem homes under $200,000 are definitely in a sellers market, while overall south Salem homes are in a neutral market. Your opinion of what is happening in the market depends on what it is that you are looking for.
Due to the tight rental market, many people are entering the home buying market as they can have mortgages that are less than rental prices. Due to the tight rental market investors are also purchasing properties to increase their rental portfolios. This will continue to fuel the under $200,000 market and keep it in sellers favor for this year, in my opinion.
These statistics are crunched from data from the WVMLS and are for single family homes, non-acreage properties.
The home truth: February 2015 report
- Year over year, the median home price is up 1.6% to $189,000
- Home sales are up 31% from February 2014.
- Days on the market is down 16% to 114 days on average.
- Inventory is currently at 5.8 months.
- Market favors: Neither buyers nor sellers. Neutral market.
At the start of the year, the market was teetering on a slight sellers market but an increase in inventory has pushed it into a neutral market. My agents and I have noticed that some homes are starting to sit, but well priced homes will still get multiple offers. The under $250,000 market is still fairly robust and closer to functioning in a mild sellers market.
We are starting to see agents really push home prices and higher priced homes are stagnating on the market as a result. The $400,000+ price range has 10.7 months of inventory, placing it solidly in a buyer’s market.
It is normal for this time of year to have inventory start to creep up as sellers start to enter the market for the spring and summer buyers. Whether or not Salem remains in the strong sellers market of last year, remains to be seen, but I would expect it to still be a robust market. I don’t see buyers having a strong advantage this year, except in higher price points.
The home truth: 2014 year end report (dated 1/9/2015)
- Median home price is up 8.3% to $180,000.
- Home sales were up year over year 2.6%
- Days on the market were down 13.8% to 112 days on the market.
- Inventory is currently at 4.8 months
- Market favors: Sellers (mildly)
2014 was a big sellers market with lower and higher priced homes moving briskly off the market. Multiple offers were common. This is likely to continue with the Obama administration’s recent announcement that the FHA MIP will be reduced from 1.35% to .85%. This will make it easier for first time home buyers to enter the market.
Typically inventory grows during the winter months, but inventory stayed tight throughout the winter months. That normal overage usually gets purchased during the spring market, but that excess supply isn’t there. I’m anticipating another tight spring market for Salem assuming rates remain about the same.
The home truth: January-June 2014
- Median home price is up 11.9% over last year to $179,000
- Home sales are up 9.7% from last year to 835
- Days on the market is down 11.5% to 84 days
- Inventory is at 6.3 months
- Market favors: Neutral market favors neither buyers nor sellersWe are at the halfway point for the real estate market this year. It has been a brisk market with multiple offers happening in many different price ranges, which was a change over last year. Last year the bulk of the multiple offers seemed to occur in the under $200,000 price point.The Salem market is a bit deceptive when you look at the overall statistics. It might give a buyer focusing on Candalaria, for example, the idea that they might have more bargaining power than they really do. The hyper local hot spots are really felt in this market with some neighborhoods taking multiple offers for many listings while others stagnate on the market.Knowing which neighborhoods are moving and which are stagnating is important to price and negotiate in this market.This statistics are crunched from data provided by the WVMLS and are for single family homes less than one acre.
The home truth snippet: 1Q 2014 over 1Q 2013
- Median home sales price up 11.8% to $170,000
- Home sales up 31.3% to 377 homes sold
- Days on the market was down 18.4% to 97
The home truth snippet: End of Year 2013 Stats over 2012
- Median home sales up 10.1% to $165,000
- Home sales up 15.4% to 2026 homes sold
- Days on the market down 7.8% to 130
- Current inventory 6.6 months
- Market favors: Neither buyers nor sellers. Normal market conditions
The home truth snippet: August 2013 stats
- Median home sales up 10% year over year
- Home sales up 10% year over year
- Inventory 5.52 months
- Market favors: Neither buyers nor sellers. Neutral market.
The home truth snippet: Salem 2nd Quarter 2013 vs. 2nd Quarter 2012
- Median home sales up 14.8%
- Home sales up 22.4%
- Inventory 6.3 months
- Market Favors: Neither buyers nor sellers, Neutral market
The home truth snippet: Salem May 2013 vs. May 2012
- Median home price up 15.5%
- Home sales up 11.2%
- Inventory: 4.67 months
- Market Favors: Sellers
The home truth snippet: Salem 3rd Quarter Report (Jan-September)
- Median home price: down 1.2%
- Home sales: Up 10.1%
- Inventory: 6.7 months
- Foreclosure notices: Up 3.7%
- Market favors: Almost neutral market (meaning not favoring either party)
The home truth snippet: Salem mid-year report (Jan-June)
- Median home price: down 5.6%
- Home sales: Up 3.2%
- Inventory: 8.5 months
- Foreclosure notices: Down 13.7%
- Market favors: Mild buyers market
The home truth snippet: Salem May 2012
Year over year:
- Median home price: Down 4.7%
- Home sales: Up 8.8%
- Inventory: Down. Currently at 8.7 months
- Market favors: Buyers, barely.
Salem June 2011 Real Estate Report
As you know if you read my post from last month, Salem was named one of the worst real estate markets in the country based on NAR real estate data. You can read how I feel about their data in that post. I won’t rehash it here. What I do want to talk about is the 2nd quarter data. The monthly reports always have some swing in them since the data group is so small. The more data we have the better quality the analysis I can do on those numbers in terms of trends. Salem is trending towards some sort of stabilization here.
As you all know home prices have dropped oodles this year. Yes, oodles is a statistically appropriate real estate term much like “needs a little TLC” means bulldoze the house. Quarter over quarter from 2010, the median home price shifted downward 12.6% from 2010. As I said in my rant post about the NAR before, this is entirely expected. You can’t prop up housing prices with the tax credit without consequences. The market has dropped 26% since the peak, and we are essentially at 2004 home prices. So what that means is if you bought your home in 2007 and put $30,000 of remodeling into it, you won’t get it back. Not even close.
So while that sounds like really horrible news, the good news is that inventory is currently at 10.7 months. So if nothing else was put on the market, everything would be sold in 10.7 months. Compare that with much of last year’s 15 month inventory and that is a definite improvement. 21% of homes that sold in the second quarter were foreclosures. Ugly, but I’ll take it compared to some parts of California and Arizona. So the number of homes sold in the second quarter was down compared to last year, but it’s that whole tax credit thing messing with the data again. The 3rd quarter should show a big improvement from last year since all those summer buyers were shoved into the first two quarters. Home sales are down 7% year to date from 2010, which is pretty good considering we don’t have a $7500 incentive this year. The other positive aspect to the market we are seeing is fewer homes being listed for sale. The regular seller knows it is a tough market and the number of homes listed over last year dropped. This has really helped our inventory start to come down. This is a good thing, and I encourage sellers that are wanting a certain price in order to sell to stay off the market. While we are seeing some initial signs of stabilization, this is by no means a “let’s see if we get what we want” kind of market.
May 2011 Market Report
April 30th of 2010 ended the eligibility for the home buyer tax credit. No big surprise that home sales were down year over year as a result. Year to date sales are down 2.8% year over year. I think this is pretty good considering the unnatural boost that happened in 2010 due to the credit. Inventory is down to 10 months in Salem proper. Last month it was 12 months, which means buyers were out at we ate up two months of inventory in just one month. Remember the goal is to get down to 6 months, which is that coveted normal inventory benchmark.
Home prices dropped just like in previous months. Again, this wasn’t unexpected as we all know home prices were a bit inflated due to the tax credit of last year. I think home prices are finally starting to get more inline with Salem incomes, but unemployment remains a problem which has impacted the market recovery. The demand for lease options and owner financing has skyrocketed here locally with few sellers able to offer those options. Improvement is happening in the market, but it will be a long slow process ahead. Data in this blog was crunched from data provided by the WVMLS.
April 2011 Report
Bummer. I kept thinking I didn’t need to do laundry, clean those toilets, or do market reports this month as I was sure that I was going to be gone on the 21st. What is the point of crunching market data if I was one of the chosen? Unfortunately, it does appear that Lucifer and I have spent too much time together for me to quality for Rapture. Seduced by the dark side again, as usual. As such, I have to write up my Salem market report for May. Double bummer.
I can think of only one reason that home sales were down in April 2011 over 2010 and that has to do with everyone spending their money on their final days. Why buy a house, when you are going to fly in the air in just a few short weeks? But the real reason home sales were down over last year is because April 30th was the last day to get under contract for the home buyer tax credit. This isn’t a big surprise. 2009 continues to be the worst real estate year and while the market is still volatile, sales have been up since then.
Salem also saw a pre-Rapture plummet in home prices. Clearly home buyers were out in droves looking for heavenly home prices here in Salem. I guess their thinking was if they were going to get pulled away from our good earth, then it better be a screaming deal. The average home price in April was $165,998 and the median $154,937. 2007 was the peak in the Salem market and the average is down 30.2% since then and the median is down 26.5%. Foreclosures and short sales were 17% of homes sold in April so they are a growing part of our market segment and will be for some time. Now that I finished my market report it means I have to clean my toilets and do some laundry. Damn Rapture letting me down. I guess if I need to be taken away, I’ll just have to go to my old standby, Calgon.